Hey Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which when you’ve got Yahoo+, you’ll discover is offered this 12 months that can assist you handle your groups. Every Friday morning, I’ll be digging into three gamers projected to play above their common degree, and three gamers projected to play under their common degree. (I’ll even be doing an AMA within the Yahoo Fantasy Discord each Thursday at 3 PM ET, so be sure you cease by, say hello, and get your questions answered.)
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Last week’s list was pretty spot on, most notably with the Michael Wilson explosion. Chase Brown additionally had a really sturdy day with loads of cross quantity, and the pair of elite WRs I tabbed for a down day each had precisely that; Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown mixed for simply 5 catches. On to Week 12 …
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Emanuel Wilson, RB, Packers
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 19.6 carries, 2.9 receptions, 108 yards, 0.82 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: RB6 vs. RB59
This one is contingent upon Josh Jacobs lacking this week, which is wanting pretty probably as of this writing. Assuming that’s the case, Wilson units up as an absolute smash play in Week 12. He picked up principally all the work when Jacobs left the sport final week, and that will determine to proceed into this week. He’s a succesful pass-catcher who would get a ton extra work via the air, in addition to most on the bottom in a recreation that Inexperienced Bay is almost a full landing favourite. The projection right here is insanely good.
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Darnell Mooney (and KhaDarel Hodge), WR, Falcons
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 8.5 targets, 4.6 receptions, 62 yards, 0.31 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: WR25 vs. WR44
Drake London sustained a knee harm on the finish of final week’s recreation and is nearly sure to overlook this week. When that occurs, Mooney will step up because the staff’s high pass-catcher. He’s been quiet this 12 months after an early-season harm, however the coachspeak of late has been very favorable. Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson has had this to say about him during the last couple of weeks (supply: Coachspeak Index Discord):
“[Darnell] Mooney is so near breaking out. I’m excited to see when that’s gonna come up … He’s very near breaking out. I can really feel it in observe.
We’ve mentioned the final couple weeks that it appears like Darnell Mooney is near being unlocked. I anticipate him getting a excessive quantity of targets sooner or later right here, and I anticipate him taking off.”
With London now out, there isn’t a extra apparent time for the staff to get Mooney going. They’re more likely to go together with a really run-heavy recreation plan with Michael Penix Jr. additionally out, however they face a fast-paced Saints staff in a recreation that initiatives for probably the most play quantity of your complete week.
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Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 20.5 makes an attempt, 1.2 receptions, 105 yards, 0.86 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: RB10 vs. RB20
Given his lack of pass-catching involvement, it’s uncommon for Henry to crack the top-10 projected working backs on any given week. However when he does, it’s in matchups like this one. When Baltimore is enjoying from forward, Henry tends to get extra work within the cross recreation and a heavier load on the bottom because the staff tries to salt the sport away. As 13.5-point favorites in opposition to the Jets, this very a lot units up as a Derrick Henry sort of recreation.
Tyler Warren, TE, Colts
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 7.2 targets, 4.8 receptions, 53 yards, 0.39 TD
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Week 11 vs. ROS: TE5 vs. TE3
Warren has established himself as a premier fantasy tight finish this 12 months, however this week doesn’t arrange particularly favorably for him. The Colts go on the highway, outside, into Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas Metropolis, which goes to be a troublesome spot for QB Daniel Jones to bounce again from his latest tough outings. Furthermore, Warren does higher in opposition to zone defenses, however the Chiefs play zone on the fifth-lowest charge within the league. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have tended to be extra profitable in opposition to man shells, so it’s attainable we see the offense shift extra their manner in every week the place the upside for the offense as a complete is extra restricted than common.
Breece Corridor, RB, Jets
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 17.4 carries, 2.8 receptions, 95 yards, 0.42 TD
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Week 11 vs. ROS: RB15 vs. RB8
Corridor is the anti-Henry this week, with recreation script very a lot working in opposition to him. The Jets are enjoying as almost two-full-touchdown underdogs, which ought to imply minimal alternatives for him to run as the sport will get out of hand. It’s additionally attainable the staff goes extra pass-heavy than common, even early on, with Tyrod Taylor beneath middle. Of their lone recreation beginning Taylor earlier this 12 months, the staff was 5% extra pass-heavy than common (adjusted for context) in comparison with 13% below-average in video games with Justin Fields. And whereas Corridor actually has loads of pass-catching capability, he merely hasn’t been utilized in that function as a lot this 12 months as previously.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 34.8 makes an attempt, 19.7 completions, 215 yards, 1.26 TD
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Week 11 vs. ROS: 15.5 factors vs. 17.7 factors per recreation
I’m keen to confess once I’m fallacious, and thus far I’ve been very fallacious on McCarthy. I nonetheless assume any half-way competent NFL quarterback ought to be capable to reach his place — nice teaching and system, nice supporting solid, dwelling video games indoors. McCarthy has at the very least, partially, been on the dangerous aspect of variance, however this week doesn’t arrange as a very good one for a bounce-back. He faces a troublesome Inexperienced Bay protection on the highway, away from the dome.
