Hi there Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which when you’ve got Yahoo+, you’ll discover is on the market this yr that can assist you handle your groups. Every Friday morning, I’ll be digging into three gamers projected to play above their regular degree, and three gamers projected to play under their regular degree. (I’ll even be doing an AMA within the Yahoo Fantasy Discord each Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so make sure to cease by, say hello, and get your questions answered).
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Last week’s list had more misses than hits, with Chris Olave catching an extended TD and neither Lamar Jackson nor Rico Dowdle getting the anticipated recreation script. Parker Washington scored twice, although, so there was a silver lining. On to Week 11 …
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RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 14.9 carries, 3.3 receptions, 89 yards, 0.53 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: RB16 vs. RB35
Harvey hasn’t lived as much as preseason expectations with J.Okay. Dobbins taking a agency maintain of the RB1 position all yr, however with Dobbins harm and probably even hitting IR, this week ought to lastly be Harvey’s week to shine. He’s already been a major a part of Denver’s passing assault (9% goal share), and he lately took over the third-down position, along with his route share leaping from 29% to 43% over the previous two weeks. Now, if we give him the majority of the work on the bottom, he tasks as one of many higher RB choices this week.
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Chase Brown, RB, Bengals
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 15.8 carries, 4.0 receptions, 91 yards, 0.60 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: RB10 vs. RB19
Samaje Perine left the Bengals’ final recreation early with a excessive ankle sprain, was deemed week-to-week and hasn’t practiced this week but. Except for the Bengals offense as a complete being a let-down this yr with out Joe Burrow, the primary factor protecting Chase Brown from being a fantasy RB1 has been the presence of Perine. He has taken on a lot of the passing work that Brown was getting final season, particularly taking part in in most passing-down conditions and even taking an excellent quantity of floor work as of late. For so long as Perine is out, the position for Brown ought to be large, and we must always most likely count on manufacturing much like what he did down the stretch in 2024.
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Michael Wilson (and Greg Dortch), WR, Cardinals
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 7.4 targets, 4.5 receptions, 59 yards, 0.35 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: 12.9 PPR factors vs. 9.1 PPR factors per recreation
Zay Jones suffered a season-ending damage final week, and Marvin Harrison Jr. simply underwent an appendectomy, leaving a ton of targets up for grabs in Arizona. The staff has been very reluctant to make use of now-No. 3 large receiver Xavier Weaver in any respect this yr (he’s performed simply 3.6% of the staff’s snaps), which may imply quite a lot of Wilson and Dortch behind (clearly) TE Trey McBride. Whereas we’re simply speculating how targets shall be distributed, the staff has only a few various choices, and you might do a lot worse for a brief fill-in than certainly one of these two guys.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
Week 11 vs. ROS: WR8 vs. WR4
I wrote up Amon-Ra on this identical spot final week, and his 5-58 line was about as ho-hum as anticipated (his second-fewest receptions, second-lowest goal share and third-lowest yardage whole all yr), with a landing saving his fantasy day. The spot this week is comparable, however worse. He stays on the street outside and in a recreation surroundings that tasks very gradual, with each Philly and Detroit operating these offenses at a gradual tempo. I discussed final week that St. Brown has a pronounced man/zone break up and performs a lot better in opposition to zone protection, and Philly runs man shells on the highest charge within the NFL. Put all of it collectively, and we must always as soon as once more count on a strong recreation right here, however most likely under his regular requirements.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
Week 11 vs. ROS: WR3 vs. WR1
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Chase’s rest-of-season prospects are trying up with hypothesis that Joe Burrow could possibly be able to return prior to later. This week, nevertheless, he won’t even have Joe Flacco, who hasn’t practiced but. A Jake Browning week would actually throw some chilly water on Chase’s prospects, particularly because the matchup isn’t significantly interesting to start with. THE BLITZ tasks Chase’s true man/zone break up because the widest of any fantasy-relevant WR within the league (strongly favoring zone), and Pittsburgh runs zone at a top-six charge. The sport additionally presently tasks for 18-mph wind, so Chase will not be fairly as elite as regular.
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Browns
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 35.0 makes an attempt, 19.9 completions, 200 yards, 1.01 TD
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Week 11 vs. ROS: 12.8 factors vs. 14.6 factors per recreation
Gabriel by no means tasks properly, however he tasks because the stone-worst QB on the entire slate this week. The climate forecast in Cleveland is presently calling for 20-mph sustained winds and gusts as much as 35 mph. And if he doesn’t play properly (or at the very least competently), chances are high rising that we see an in-game benching for Shedeur Sanders. Head coach Kevin Stefanski lately handed off play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, and if that doesn’t get issues transferring, a benching would make sense as their subsequent try. The teaching employees has already begun fielding questions from the media a few change at QB, and that sometimes means an precise change isn’t far behind.
