Week 11 brings a rookie receiver rising in Chicago, a mile excessive alternative at operating again in Denver, a New England want for velocity and extra. 5 rookies, 5 paths to touches this week so you may transfer first and acquire an edge on this week’s rookie report.
RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos
That is precisely why you draft rookies in the summertime. There’s a actual likelihood JK Dobbins misses Week 11 after the damage he suffered on Thursday night time in opposition to the Raiders, and reports say the Broncos are even considering IR. If that occurs RJ Harvey steps into the type of window that may swing a matchup. We all know the passing work has already flowed his manner whereas the speeding has been dominated by Dobbins. The uncooked makes an attempt inform the story for Denver backs up to now: JK Dobbins 153, RJ Harvey 50, Tyler Badie 2, Jaleel McLaughlin 1. I’m not projecting a monster workload if Dobbins sits, however I do count on Harvey to steer this backfield in alternatives.
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The matchup isn’t any layup. Kansas Metropolis is a robust protection, fourth in factors allowed, and it’s coming off a bye week. This isn’t the spot to vow a breakout line. It’s the spot to guess on a proficient rookie taking the lead function in a very good offense when the door opens. Harvey’s receiving utilization issues right here. When the run recreation stalls in opposition to a entrance like this, the straightforward buttons are screens and fast shops to the again. These are environment friendly fantasy touches that add up without having 25 carries. If Denver strikes the ball, Harvey additionally has a path to high-value touches in tight. One brief area, one goal-line look, and the day flips.
Ray’s Rookie Learn: I’m not chasing hope. I’m chasing function plus timing. If Dobbins misses, deal with Harvey like a excessive finish RB2 or RB3 with landing upside in opposition to Kansas Metropolis. You don’t want to overthink it at this stage of the season.
Tez Johnson, WR, Buccaneers
That is what a gradual function seems like when a rookie earns belief. Tampa Bay misplaced to New England, however Tez Johnson made his touches depend with 5 targets, 4 receptions for 42 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Since his function expanded with accidents within the WR room, he has cleared 40 receiving yards in every of his final 5 video games, scored 4 touchdowns over that stretch and topped 5 targets in 3 of these outings. That’s bankable involvement tied to a quarterback who will let it rip.
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The pecking order is obvious. Emeka Egbuka is the alpha and he confirmed it with a 13-target, 115-yard day. The shift that issues for us is the second possibility. Sterling Shepard noticed little work in opposition to the Patriots with 3 catches for 20 yards and 1 rush. Johnson is working as the sphere stretcher and movement piece who additionally will get schemed red-zone seems. With no Chris Godwin in sight and Bucky Irving’s standing for Week 11 up within the air, Tampa Bay wants explosive performs. Johnson is a harmful playmaker, which pairs nicely with Baker Mayfield’s aggressive mindset.
The matchup with Buffalo is gettable. Like Burden, Johnson doesn’t want 10 targets to repay when his touches include leverage. One vertical shot or one red-zone idea and he’s in your lineup’s scoring column. The ground isn’t assured as a result of he’s nonetheless the No. 2 behind Egbuka, however the utilization breadcrumbs are robust sufficient to deal with him like a weekly streamer whereas the goal tree stays condensed.
Ray’s Rookie Learn: In play as a streaming flex with landing upside for Week 11. Maintain rolling him whereas the function holds and the accidents preserve the door open.
Luther Burden III, WR, Bears
This dynamic second-round choose fought by way of a summer time hamstring subject which restricted his early manufacturing and alternative, then noticed his workload climb after the Week 5 bye. Rome Odunze is the WR1 in Chicago. That’s not up for debate both. The story with Burden is effectivity on restricted work and a job that appears able to develop.
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Burden has 16 receptions on 18 targets for 222 yards. He owns a 27.1% route price, but his 2.78 yards per route run leads this group. Stack him in opposition to Olamide Zaccheaus and it pops much more. Burden has virtually equaled Zaccheaus’ receiving yards on virtually 50% as many routes and never even half as many targets. Zaccheaus is second on the staff in targets, however Burden is doing extra with much less. That’s the effectivity you stash earlier than the quantity catches up.
Context helps. DJ Moore has been a little bit banged up in video games. Chicago lives in damaging recreation scripts usually, which invitations extra three-receiver units and extra possibilities for a playmaker who can win downfield and after the catch. Caleb Williams has flashed his big-play means following the bye. Burden isn’t just a gadget participant. He can threaten vertically, uncover on timing routes and provides Chicago a unique taste within the intermediate home windows.
The schedule look robust on paper, however quantity can come if Chicago is chasing factors due to that protection. You don’t want 10 targets for Burden to matter. You want a bump in routes. The effectivity says he can money these rapidly as soon as the snap share climbs.
Ray’s Rookie Learn: Precedence stash, obtainable in over 90% of leagues. Increase bust WR4 with spike week juice down the stretch if the route price ticks towards full time.
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Kyle Williams, WR, Patriots
This one is a radar add. Kyle Williams had his welcome to the league second in Week 10 at Tampa Bay. On New England’s third possession, he scored the primary landing of the sport for New England on a one-play shot that used his velocity to tear throughout the sphere. He completed with 2 targets, 1 catch for 72 yards and a landing. The quantity that pops much more is the GPS. Williams hit 21.78 miles per hour, one of many quickest ball carriers of the week, with TreVeyon Henderson topping out at 22 miles per hour. That confirms what the tape says. Williams brings recreation breaking velocity this receiver room doesn’t have.
I’m not promoting a full-time function but. He isn’t a refined participant and you can not depend upon weekly quantity. However in an offense led by an MVP caliber quarterback who excels off play motion, the deep crossers and drags that spotlight Williams’ velocity are precisely the sorts of ideas that may flip a matchup with one contact. We already heard Mike Vrabel say he desires to see a little bit extra of Williams. If Kayshon Boutte misses extra time, the runway for snaps widens. That’s the contingency you care about for Week 11.
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You don’t power him into lineups. You add him you probably have room and also you let the function inform you when to maneuver him into your lineup. If New England schemes him two or three designed pictures a recreation, he turns right into a Tez Johnson model dwelling run swing who can repay on restricted quantity.
Ray’s Rookie Learn: Monitor Boutte. If he sits, stash Williams now as a velocity specialist with weekly growth potential. Not a begin in Week 11 until you’re chasing upside in deeper codecs.
Jackson Hawes, TE, Payments
This one is a deep-league swing that is smart for a few of you. Jackson Hawes has 8 receptions for 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns this season. Dalton Kincaid is taken into account week-to-week with a hamstring damage he picked up within the loss to Miami. Kincaid has been considered one of Josh Allen’s prime targets with 29 catches for 448 yards and a team-high 4 touchdowns. The Payments now should redistribute these seems. Khalil Shakir really leads the staff with 457 yards. Projected beginning tight finish Dawson Knox has 155 yards on 18 targets with 12 receptions and a landing.
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This isn’t a flip the offense over to Hawes scenario in any respect. He got here in identified for blocking and physicality, however Buffalo has proven they are going to throw him the ball in scoring areas. That issues when you find yourself trying to find low-cost factors at tight finish. With Kincaid damage, the Payments can lean on two tight finish units with Knox and blend Hawes into play motion close to the objective line. One end-zone goal could make your week at this place.
Tampa Bay is up subsequent. Buffalo must get proper after Sunday’s loss, and condensed red-zone utilization is how a rookie like Hawes sneaks into the field rating. I’m not telling you to begin him in commonplace codecs. If Kincaid misses a number of weeks, Hawes can transfer into the streamer combine with the reigning MVP at quarterback. You might be betting on function by the objective line plus a number of schemed pictures to maintain defenses trustworthy.
Ray’s Rookie Learn: Monitor the damage report. With Kincaid seemingly out, Hawes is a touchdown-chasing streamer in deep leagues.
