Week 12 is underway after an unsightly Thursday Night time Soccer sport. With the fantasy playoffs quick approaching, I’ve some capitulation to do that week.
Quarterback
Begin: Jared Goff, Lions
Coming off a shellacking by the hands of the Eagles, the Lions are a secure guess to get again on observe this week. Vegas has Detroit with the best workforce complete of the weekend at 30.25. The Giants use man protection on the second-highest fee within the league. Goff ranks third in YPA (8.1) towards man and fourth in completion fee (60 p.c). Of word, Jameson Williams didn’t make it into this text as a “Begin”, however he’s averaging 2.53 YPRR towards man this 12 months. Be at liberty to fireplace him up once more this week.
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Begin: Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals
The Brissett gravy prepare will finish sooner or later, however Sunday isn’t that day. The Jags’ protection has collapsed over the previous two months. They had been the No. 3 protection by EPA per passing play allowed in September. That has fallen to No. 24 within the subsequent two months. Groups have acknowledged them as a protection to focus on via the air. The Jags have confronted a +4% move fee over anticipated this 12 months. That’s simply the best mark within the league. The Cardinals will likely be greater than prepared to play that sport. Arizona has logged a +7% PROE in 5 Brissett begins.
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Brissett has thrown for a minimum of 258 yards and two touchdowns in each begin this 12 months. He’s now a slight underdog to a pass-funnel protection. This, once more, is the proper setup for our Joe Flacco successor.
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Sit: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Vegas is cautious of the Bucs this week. Their 21.5-point implied workforce complete is identical because the Steelers. We don’t know who Pittsburgh’s quarterback is on the time of this text’s posting. The road-tripping Panthers are solely projected to attain .25 fewer factors. His opponent, the Rams, ranks second in EPA per dropback allowed this 12 months. LA is giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy factors to opposing passers.
Sit: Jordan Love, Packers
Quantity isn’t going to be on Love’s facet this week. The Packers are 6.5-point favorites at residence over the Vikings. Regardless of the hefty unfold, their 23.75 workforce complete sits behind 10 groups, together with the Bears and Jags. Inexperienced Bay has a -3% PROE this 12 months. The Vikings have confronted a impartial PROE in 2025, however that has shifted since J.J. McCarthy returned to the lineup. Over the previous three weeks, groups have hit the Vikings with a -4% PROE. Love has tried greater than 40 passes as soon as this 12 months and has two top-five weekly fantasy finishes. Brissett has as many top-five outings.
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Working Again
Begin: Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
As a long-time Walker hater, Week 11 has me reconsidering issues. The Seahawks have quietly been shifting their objective line duties over the previous three weeks. From Week 4 to Week 7, Zach Charbonnet out-carried Walker 7-1 contained in the 5. That break up has reversed to 4-1 in Walker’s favor since Seattle’s Week 8 bye. Walker’s route fee can be as much as 41 p.c because the bye. It sat at 32 p.c forward of the break.
Head coach Mike Macdonald then stated the quiet half out loud earlier this week. Walker is barreling towards his finest function of the 12 months simply as he and the Seahawks sq. off with the lowly Titans. It is a smash spot for KW.
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Begin: David Montgomery, Lions
Montgomery has been a irritating fantasy guess as of late, scoring only one landing in his previous 5 appearances. The largest distinction throughout that stretch has been an absence of optimistic sport script. The Lions are 2-3 throughout their final 5 video games.
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Montgomery has averaged 8.5 PPR factors in losses in comparison with 13 in wins this 12 months. He and the Lions are favored by 10.5 factors at residence versus the Giants. No workforce has allowed a better EPA per rush than New York.
Sit: Breece Corridor, Jets
The Jets pulled the plug on Justin Fields, changing him with Tyrod Taylor for Week 12 versus the Ravens. Whereas Taylor could be a greater real-life quarterback for the Jets, he may do extra hurt than good for Corridor. Taylor made one begin earlier this 12 months. The Jets, who’ve the bottom PROE within the league, went pass-first beneath Taylor, logging a +3% PROE in Week 3. New York’s backs mixed for 15 rush makes an attempt. Taylor has additionally thrown to his operating backs much less usually and with much less effectivity than Fields.
|
RB Goal Share |
RB YPT |
RB TDs |
|
|
With Taylor |
18.8% |
4.6 |
0 |
|
With Fields |
21.6% |
6.8 |
1 |
There may be the potential for Corridor’s dashing and receiving numbers to plummet this week in a sport the place his workforce is projected to lose by practically two scores.
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Sit: Chase Brown, Bengals
No workforce has been extra stingy to operating backs than the Patriots this 12 months. They’re giving up 11 factors per week to opposing backs, simply the bottom mark within the league. New England has not allowed a operating again to hit 60 yards on the bottom in 2025. Even with Joe Burrow probably returning, the Bengals are nonetheless 5.5-point canine this week. Brown continues to be a high quality RB2 based mostly on his pass-catching function, however his temporary stint as a low-end RB1 is being placed on pause this week.
Extensive Receiver
Begin: Tee Higgins, Bengals
This shouldn’t come as a shock, however you’re beginning Higgins this week. You would possibly have the ability to rely on one hand the variety of receivers price enjoying over him. Higgins hasn’t performed in a sport with out Ja’Marr Chase in a number of years. That final occurred in 2023 and 2022. When it did occur, the outcomes had been superb.
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He averaged over 20 factors per sport in 5 contests with out Chase in these years. His goal share in 2025 sits at 19 p.c, a five-point drop from his 2024 mark. His aDOT has additionally jumped to 14.1, effectively forward of the place it was final 12 months. The Bengals have been utilizing Higgins primarily as a field-stretcher this 12 months, undercutting his fantasy worth. He’ll get the alpha remedy this week, placing him in line for high-end WR1 numbers.
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Begin: Luther Burden, Bears
Higgins was an apparent begin, so we’re getting a deeper lower right here. Ben Johnson put Burden into the beginning lineup in Week 11 and isn’t wanting again.
Burden is coming off a season-high in route fee (61 p.c) and goal share (18 p.c). He and the Bears now face a Pittsburgh workforce that has given up the fifth-most fantasy factors to opposing wideouts.
Sit: Jordan Addison, Vikings
No receiver has made extra of their residing on intermediate and deep targets than Addison. He has amassed over 80 p.c of his yards on throws 10+ yards downfield. All three of his scores have been on intermediate pictures. J.J. McCarthy ranks thirty second out of 35 quarterbacks in correct throw row on makes an attempt 10+ yards downfield. He sits at twenty ninth in YPA and has the third-most interceptions on these throws regardless of rating thirtieth in makes an attempt.
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Sit: Ricky Pearsall, 49ers
Pearsall has appeared in 5 video games this 12 months, 4 of which Jauan Jennings was lively for. In these 4 video games, Pearsall has 14.8 p.c goal share and has been focused on 15.2 p.c of his routes. He’s averaging 8.4 PPR factors per sport with Jennings accessible. Pearsall ran the entire routes in his return to motion final week and was focused twice. He must show he can earn alternatives earlier than fantasy managers put him again of their lineups.
Tight Finish
Begin: Juwan Johnson, Saints
This isn’t probably the most enjoyable “Begin” of the week, however Johnson is a greater fantasy possibility than loads of fantasy managers will likely be rolling out on Sunday. He stays accessible in a 3rd of Yahoo leagues and is the TE7 on the 12 months. His 19 p.c goal share is tied for eighth amongst tight ends. His 16 p.c air yards share additionally cracks the highest 10.
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Begin: Dallas Goedert, Eagles
When the Eagles have confronted man protection this 12 months, A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley are their guys. Towards zone, it’s all DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
|
YPRR vs. Zone |
TPRR vs. Zone |
YPRR vs. Man |
TPRR vs. Man |
|
|
DeVonta Smith |
2.14 |
19.8% |
1.6 |
24.7% |
|
Dallas Goedert |
1.6 |
18.6% |
0.98 |
19.5% |
|
A.J. Brown |
1.08 |
18.3% |
3.6 |
34.8% |
|
Saquon Barkley |
0.82 |
19.5% |
2.39 |
15.9% |
The target-earning versus zone protection is comparatively flat, however Smith and Goedert run laps round their teammates in YPRR. Dallas makes use of zone protection on the sixth-highest fee within the league and they aren’t a superb protection generally, giving up the fifth-worst EPA per play to opposing passers.
Sit: David Njoku, Browns
It seems to be totally over for Njoku. He has a seven p.c goal share and a two p.c air yards share because the workforce’s Week 9 bye. Kevin Stefanski has scaled him again to a 52 p.c route fee throughout that stretch. The final time he ran greater than 56 p.c of the routes was in Week 5. He’s only a backup tight finish now.
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Sit: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings
McCarthy’s accuracy points are additionally an issue for Hockenson, however they aren’t even the most important situation. Since Jordan Addison returned in Week 4, Hockenson has seen a measly 14 p.c of the workforce’s targets. He has been focused on 13 p.c of his routes throughout that stretch and is averaging 7.3 fantasy factors per sport with Addison within the lineup. These aren’t even TE2 numbers.
