Searching for sharp faculty soccer betting data by means of predictive analytics and evaluation?
The Energy Rank member faculty soccer mannequin comes from my background (Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford) and makes use of play-by-play and market knowledge to make unfold predictions.
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For the reason that begin of the 2023 season by means of Week 12, the predictions are 52.4% in opposition to the opening market (848-770 with 26 pushes in video games by which the prediction differs from the market by a degree or extra). Since I began posting them in Week 4, the totals predictions are 52.2% in opposition to the closing market (198-181 with 5 pushes).
Along with the mannequin, I analysis subjective components the mannequin doesn’t take into account to make long-term worthwhile bets.
Let’s take a look at 5 predictions for Week 13 of the faculty soccer season.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (5) runs in the course of the first half in opposition to Minnesota on Friday, Nov. 14, 2025, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photograph/Lydia Ely)
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No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (-9.5, 59.5)
The Energy Rank prediction: Oregon 38, USC 25.6
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Oregon is in a contest with No. 9 Notre Dame as probably the most underrated group within the playoff committee rankings. Oregon has a loss to No. 2 Indiana and nearly slipped up at Iowa. In any other case, the Geese have largely dominated inferior Huge Ten competitors, the mark of an incredible group. Oregon is third in my member rankings.
USC has the standard signature of a Lincoln Riley group: potent offense with a dud of a protection. The offense ranks second in my yards per play (YPP) adjusted for opposing protection with my algorithms at The Energy Rank. QB Jayden Maiava has been nice, however he does face an elite Oregon go protection (third in my adjusted yards per go try). The power of this go protection is stunning given the entire turnover within the secondary from final season.
Regardless of not enjoying the previous two video games, freshman WR Dakorien Moore nonetheless leads Oregon in targets and has a stable 2.43 yards per route run. Even when he can’t play, Oregon’s offense ought to be capable of run the ball. USC’s protection ranks eightieth in my adjusted yards per carry.
My mannequin predicts a complete of 63.6 factors on this recreation. Nonetheless, I just like the unfold greater than the over due to Oregon’s go protection. My mannequin has Oregon by 12.4 factors at house, and I count on the market to return north of the important thing variety of 10.
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Wager: Oregon -9.5
Arkansas at No. 17 Texas (-9.5, 57.4)
The Energy Rank prediction: Texas 33.4, Arkansas 25.6
Arch Manning actually did have a pleasant recreation in opposition to Vanderbilt (328 passing yards in 33 makes an attempt, 3 touchdowns). With greater expectations, he regressed in opposition to Georgia (251 passing yards in 43 makes an attempt), and the questions on his play have began once more.
As I famous final week, Vanderbilt doesn’t have the strongest go protection (77th in success price, 87th in yards per go try in my adjusted numbers). Manning now faces an Arkansas go protection with the same profile (57th in success price, 83rd in yards per go try), which opens the window for enchancment.
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Whereas Manning has upset, he’s not the one motive Texas has regressed this season. Steve Sarkisian’s program has had 12 and 11 gamers drafted the previous two years, with a number of first-round picks in every draft. This Texas group has a trio of gamers – LB Anthony Hill Jr., CB Malik Muhammad, OT Trevor Goosby – projected as second-round picks at best.
It appears odd to guess on a 2-8 group in Arkansas. Nonetheless, this group has an astounding 0-6 document in one-score video games, shedding to possible playoff groups Texas A&M and Ole Miss by a complete of 9 factors.
QB Taylen Inexperienced leads an explosive offense ranked third in my adjusted yards per play. Arkansas ought to be capable of rating factors even in opposition to a great Texas protection, and my mannequin has Texas by 7.8 factors.
Wager: Arkansas +9.5
No. 11 BYU (-2.5, 54.5) at Cincinnati
The Energy Rank prediction: BYU 29.1, Cincinnati 27.1
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With two extra convention wins, BYU earns the suitable to get pummeled by Texas Tech within the Huge 12 championship recreation. The tougher recreation at Cincinnati comes first earlier than a house recreation in opposition to UCF.
BYU received again on monitor final week with a convincing 44-13 win over TCU. Within the previous three video games, BYU had fewer whole yards and yards per play than their opponents but went 2-1.
Cincinnati has misplaced two straight to Arizona and Utah after a 5-0 begin in convention. Nonetheless, the offense has the potential for large performs, particularly within the run recreation. RB Tawee Walker has rushed for six.1 yards per carry, and Cincinnati would possibly get RB Evan Pryor again (7.2 yards per carry). BYU is weaker in opposition to the run than go (76th in my adjusted yards per carry).
My mannequin has BYU by 2 and a complete of 56.2 factors.
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Wager: Lean over 54.5
Pittsburgh at No. 16 Georgia Tech (-2.5, 61.5)
The Energy Rank prediction: Georgia Tech 32.1, Pittsburgh 28.2
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King has been incredible this season with each his legs and arms. He leads an offense ranked fifth in my adjusted success price and seventeenth by my adjusted YPP.
Nonetheless, it additionally helps to have a protection, and Georgia Tech has failed on that aspect of the ball (ninety fifth in adjusted YPP). In its solely loss, this unit allowed 48 factors to North Carolina State, by far the very best whole by the Wolfpack in opposition to an FBS opponent this season.
A Pittsburgh loss to Notre Dame final weekend wasn’t stunning, however coach Pat Narduzzi’s feedback earlier than the sport had been. As pointed out by professional bettor Eddie Walls, Narduzzi mentioned the Notre Dame recreation wasn’t essential due to the 2 convention video games to observe. Accidents restricted CB Cruce Brookins and edge Blaine Spires to 9 snaps when these two regulars perhaps might have performed extra.
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My numbers have Georgia Tech by 3.9 factors. Nonetheless, a stable Pittsburgh protection (twentieth in YPP) with the return of some regulars will preserve me off Georgia Tech -2.5.
Wager: Move
Rutgers at No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5, 54.5)
The Energy Rank prediction: Ohio State 44, Rutgers 15.3
Ohio State continues to snooze to the tip of the season, as solely two Huge Ten opponents have gotten with 18 factors of beating the Buckeyes. A seven-point win over Texas seems higher and higher for the SEC each week.
It’s onerous to choose holes in Ohio State. Can the Buckeyes run the ball? They rank 51st in my adjusted yards per carry, however they’re in all probability higher than that. Freshman RB Bo Jackson has gotten probably the most carries in every of the previous 4 video games and has gained 6.6 yards per carry.
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It isn’t the week to go in opposition to Ohio State with an terrible Rutgers group, even when my mannequin solely has Ohio State by 28.7 factors. Possibly it’s extra attention-grabbing that my mannequin has Ohio State by 10.6 factors at Michigan, a diffusion that appears too low.
Wager: Move
Ed Feng runs The Power Rank, a soccer analytics and betting website.
